COVID, Economic Activity, and Climate

Everyone talks about COVID helping reduce warming:
COVID up --> economic activity down --> CO2 down --> temperature down.

But there's a flip side:
COVID up --> activity down --> atmospheric sulphate aerosols down --> temperature UP!
(Sulphate aerosols reflect solar heat, so if they're down, temp is up.) 

See https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/climate-conundrum-could-covid-19-be-linked-to-early-arctic-ice-melt/.

It would be interesting to assess the the competing effects of CO2 vs. sulphate aerosols, dynamically.  One might start with impulse-response analysis of an economic activity shock in a predictive model containing economic activity, CO2, sulphate aerosols, and temperature.