Best conference location in North America: 9th Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC)

 

9th Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC)

Great conference, great community, and yes, great location.  I try to begin all recent climate talks by mentioning this conference and showing this picture, which provides fine motivation for students to start doing climate econometrics...

On tyrants and recalcitrant statistical agencies II: The case of the BLS

[Oh geez, I forgot that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was coming out today. I had planned to specialize the last post to the BLS eventually -- as regards not just the Jobs Report but also the CPI. So here goes, quickly...]

Obviously the previous post applies to the current Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report situation. Let's hope we don't go too far through the playbook. 

But there's more with the BLS situation. BLS produces not only the Jobs Report, but also the CPI, and hence the key data on inflation faced by U.S. consumers. Just as there's a strong temptation for a tyrant to declare weak jobs data as rigged, so too is there a strong temptation to declare increased inflation data as rigged -- and widespread tariffs may produce increased inflation.

So the BLS may be under immense pressure on multiple fronts in the coming months. I fear that we may go significantly through the playbook, particularly as the CPI just happens to be the price gauge to which Social Security benefits are indexed. If a tyrant who wanted to eliminate the U.S. Social Security system could discredit the CPI, then they could discredit inflation-protected Social Security benefits, and then...

On tyrants and recalcitrant statistical agencies

[This is not about the BLS. Really. At least not yet. In a future post I might specialize it to the BLS.]

What's a tyrant to do when they don't get the data they want from Statistical Agency X? Torture Statistical Agency X, of course. 

Here's my sketch of a playbook:

Deflect blame by insisting that the data were "rigged" by politically–motivated actors.

Install a political loyalist to produce "better" numbers.

If Agency X guardrails constrain the loyalist from producing better numbers, then weaken the Agency X guardrails.

If the weakened Agency X guardrails still don't produce the desired result, then weaken the entire Agency X, for example by slashing its budget.

If the weakened Agency X -- with a loyalist at the helm, weakened guardrails, and a slashed budget – – still fails to produce the desired result, then destroy it, for example by eliminating it and assigning its duties to a more pliable agency (perhaps newly created), or even by eliminating its duties ("Who needs this rigged and boring data anyway? Isn't it just a waste of taxpayer money?")

Real Growth as Assessed by ADS Looks OK So Far

A weak jobs report, and much more importantly the related and absurd firing of the BLS commissioner on August 1, have dominated the recent news. But the firing is a topic for a subsequent blog.

For now let's step back and take a look at the broad U.S. employment/growth picture. Employment gains have evidently slowed in recent months, but job destruction as indicated by initial claims has not risen. Initial claims are a key component of the ADS index of real economic activity, and ADS recently and currently continues to indicate "typical", or "average", growth. So: so far so good, but keep your eye on initial claims in future weeks (updates arrive every Thursday). Fingers crossed.

And Please Take Thirty Seconds for This as Well

You can of course view No Hesitations on a desktop or laptop, at URL https://fxdiebold.blogspot.com.  It also formats nicely for viewing on your phone. But on your phone you don't want to have to go to a browser and type the URL. Instead, you can add a No Hesitations icon on your home screen. Then just tap it and you're in! The steps appear below, for both Andriod and iPhone.

How to Add No Hesitations to Your Home Screen

✅ On Android (using Chrome):

1. Open Chrome and go to https://fxdiebold.blogspot.com

2. Tap the three-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner.

3. Tap “Add to Home screen”.

4. Edit the name (optional), then tap Add.

5. You may be asked to confirm—choose Add Automatically or drag to place it.

🎉 Done! You’ll now have an icon on your home screen like an app

---

✅ On iPhone (using Safari):

1. Open Safari and go to https://fxdiebold.blogspot.com

2. Tap the Share icon (square with an arrow).

3. Scroll down and tap “Add to Home Screen”.

4. Edit the name if you want, then tap Add.

🎉 Done! A shortcut will appear on your iPhone’s home screen.

PLEASE Take Thirty Seconds to do This

During my three-year vacation, Google Blogger changed the way it sends email notifications of new blog posts, so PLEASE sign up at right.  You can always cancel if my new blogs are not to your liking!  

I'm Back

Yes, it's been a three-year break, but I'm BAAAAAAK... Seriously. Stay tuned.

Best Coffee in Philly

Yes, I know it has been far too long since a serious post.  But maybe I'm finally getting my head above water.  

In any event here is some Philly coffee advice:
***The Nook***, 15 South 20^th. He roasts; she bakes. Wonderful shrine to seriously sourced and roasted coffee, and meticulous baking. No tables, but still... Best coffee in Philly as of 2/2023. Pay them a visit!

Eight steps to Gauss

 Just eight co-authorship steps to Gauss! Small world indeed. And the route backward is not too shabby: 
Me --> Marc Nerlove --> Kenneth Arrow --> David Blackwell --> Richard Bellman --> Ernst Straus --> Albert Einstein --> Hermann Minkowski --> Carl Friedrich Gauss

Something May Be Wrong With Me

It strikes me that something may be wrong with me.  

In a new paper in progress I wanted to cite the famous and beautiful Sims, Stock and Watson (1990). I found the bibtex on Jim Stock's Harvard site. Fine. Then I noticed that it listed the authors as Stock, Sims, and Watson. OK, fine, I changed it to the correct alphabetical order of Sims, Stock and Watson. (Probably just Jim's administrative assistant aggrandizing on his behalf.)

Anyway I also noticed that the bibtex omitted middle initials, just giving C. Sims, J. Stock, and M. Watson. The amazing thing, and why something may be wrong with me, is that I was instantly able to supply from memory the full C.A. Sims, J.H. Stock, and M.W. Watson. Do I not have anything better with which to fill my head?!

Indeed it gets worse.  Not only do I have burned into my memory C.W.J. Granger and P.C.B. Phillips, but also their full names, Clive William John Granger and Peter Charles Bonest Phillips.  I really don't know how I learned them, or why I retain them. Of course people like Granger, Phillips, Sims, Stock, and Watson are my heroes, among the very greatest of the past sixty years of econometrics, but still...