Monday, June 22, 2020

COVID, Economic Activity, and Climate

Everyone talks about COVID helping reduce warming:
COVID up --> economic activity down --> CO2 down --> temperature down.

But there's a flip side:
COVID up --> activity down --> atmospheric sulphate aerosols down --> temperature UP!
(Sulphate aerosols reflect solar heat, so if they're down, temp is up.


It would be interesting to assess the the competing effects of CO2 vs. sulphate aerosols, dynamically.  One might start with impulse-response analysis of an economic activity shock in a predictive model containing economic activity, CO2, sulphate aerosols, and temperature.

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