Yesterday the NBER announced that the U.S. Pandemic Recession started in February 2020. The four-month announcement lag is the shortest since 1980, and probably the shortest of all time. (See the table below, from work in progress. The announcement dates are in parentheses.) The short lag is noteworthy because typical NBER announcement lags are famously long, as is appropriate when establishing the scientific business-cycle chronology of record -- the NBER dating committee only gets one chance, and it wants to get it right. Indeed some might feel that yesterday's release was hasty! But I think not. They got it right, short announcement lag and all. Sometimes things come into sharp focus very quickly.
Table: NBER Recessions
Recession Dates Recession Characteristics
Starting Month
|
Ending Month
|
Duration
|
Depth
|
Severity
|
January 1980 (6/3/1980)
|
July 1980 (7/8/1981)
|
6
|
-3.6
|
-394.9
|
July 1981 (1/6/1982)
|
November 1982 (7/8/1983)
|
16
|
-2.9
|
-741.3
|
July 1990 (4/25/1991)
|
March 1991 (12/22/1992)
|
8
|
-1.7
|
-376.8
|
March 2001 (11/26/2001)
|
November 2001 (7/17/2003)
|
8
|
-1.5
|
-328.4
|
December 2007 (12/1/2008)
|
June 2009 (9/20/2010)
|
18
|
-4.3
|
-1254.9
|
February 2020 (6/6/2020)
|
?
|
?
|
?
|
?
|
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