Real Growth as Assessed by ADS Looks OK So Far

A weak jobs report, and much more importantly the related and absurd firing of the BLS commissioner on August 1, have dominated the recent news. But the firing is a topic for a subsequent blog.

For now let's step back and take a look at the broad U.S. employment/growth picture. Employment gains have evidently slowed in recent months, but job destruction as indicated by initial claims has not risen. Initial claims are a key component of the ADS index of real economic activity, and ADS recently and currently continues to indicate "typical", or "average", growth. So: so far so good, but keep your eye on initial claims in future weeks (updates arrive every Thursday). Fingers crossed.