Sunday, January 26, 2020

No Hesitations Hiatus

It's better to burn out than to fade away.
Neil said that. Or something like that.

It's been a great run and a tremendously rewarding experience, and I strongly suspect that I'll return one day. But I just don't have much to say at the moment, so I think it's time for a break. 

THANKS for your kind and invigorating and unfailing support.  Thinking with you for five years or so has been a great, great pleasure.

I'll be back.
Arnold said that. Or something like that.

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Ice-Free Arctic Summers are Coming VERY Soon

A very happy New Year to all!

Here's a new D&R to start it off:

"Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: 
Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections"
Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch
arXiv:1912.10774 [stat.APecon.EM].

The downward trend in Arctic sea ice is a key factor determining the pace and intensity of future global climate change; moreover, declines in sea ice can have a wide range of additional environmental and economic consequences. Based on several decades of satellite data, in a new paper Glenn Rudebusch and I provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century (Diebold and Rudebusch, "Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections", arXiv:1912.10774 [stat.APecon.EM]). Our results indicate that sea ice is diminishing at an increasing rate, in sharp contrast to average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models, which foresee a gradual slowing of sea ice loss even in high carbon emissions scenarios. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. This analysis indicates almost a 60 percent chance of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean in the 2030s -- much earlier than the average projection from global climate models.